NAND Flash price forecast to dip by around 10 percent

The ASP of NAND Flash will dip by around 10 percent quarter on quarter in Q3 and Q4 of 2018 due to oversupply at various levels, DRAMeXchange, a division of TrendForce, said.
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The sale of consumer electronics was weaker than anticipated, while the supply of 3D-NAND Flash increased.

The shipments for smartphones this year are expected to be on par with last year’s. The replacement demand for smartphones is sluggish due to the lack of differentiation among products in terms of hardware specifications.

Since notebook shipments were very strong in H1 2018 shipment growth for notebooks in H2 2018 will be dim. Competition is very intense in the server SSD market.

Though demand for server systems is growing, there is an oversupply of server SSDs because many suppliers are engaging in this profitable segment. NAND Flash suppliers have raised their output forecasts as they have expanded their production capacity and improved the yield rates of their 64/72-layer 3D-NAND production.

Growth in bit demand for eMMC/UFS and SSD is expected as the price drop can raise memory density in end products

The effects of the price decline in NAND Flash are not negative because lower NAND Flash prices can actually encourage device makers to raise the density (storage) specifications of their products.

Smartphone makers have expanded the storage of their flagship devices to 256/512GB. This in turn has led to the upgrade for models within the mid to high-range segment, from 32/64GB to 64/128GB.

The increase in the NAND Flash density of smartphones will contribute significantly to the total NAND Flash bit consumption, which is estimated to grow by at least 40 percent for 2018.

The drop in SSD prices is going to push the SSD adoption rate in the notebook market to exceed 50 percent for the first time before the end of 2018.

NAND Flash density of mainstream client-grade SSDs for PC-OEMs will increase to 256GB by the end of 2018.

The mainstream density specification of client-grade SSDs could advance to 512GB over the next two to three years.

NAND Flash and SSD suppliers are developing higher-density storage solutions for the server markets. The density growth of server SSDs is projected to become larger in 2019 with the market entry of the QLC 3D-NAND architecture.