DRAM products price forecast to decline 5 percent in Q4

DRAM products price may decline 5 percent quarter on quarter in Q4 2018 due to oversupply and weak demand, says TrendForce.
Samsung 10nm-class 16Gb LPDDR4X DRAM for Automobiles
PC DRAM and server DRAM price increased 1-2 percent in the third quarter, while mobile DRAM applications achieved a flat price despite the busy season.

Graphics DRAM has started to experience a price drop. The spot prices for DRAM have been sliding since the beginning of this year and dropped to a level lower than contract prices in June. Currently, the spot prices are 10 percent lower than contract prices, which is an early indicator of the possible DRAM price decline.

There is demand for server DRAM due to orders from data center customers in North America and the transition to the new server processor platform. The end-clients tend to secure the supply by double booking amid the tight supply of DRAM in H1.

The undersupply of DRAM has eased with significantly improved order fulfillment rates, as the DRAM suppliers increased the proportion of server DRAM applications in their product mixes.

Quotations will decline by 5 percent because the server demand is uncertain and spot prices of DRAM products fell in the channel market. Korean DRAM manufacturers have already lowered their target prices for Q4.

The PC DRAM market also expects an oversupply and a price drop up to 5 percent. Shortage of Intel CPUs may lead to lower demand for notebooks and PC DRAM in a row.

The demand for specialty DRAM is weak due to the US-China trade war. The contract prices of specialty DRAM may decrease in Q4 – which may be steeper than PC DRAM and server DRAM.

Mobile DRAM products expect a weak price trend in Q4 though the shipments of iPhones are expected to boost the demand.

The prices of discrete solutions may decline by around 3 percent, while eMCP may see up to 8 percent price decline due to the price drop of NAND Flash.

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