TrendForce has sharply raised its price forecasts for DRAM and NAND Flash in the first quarter of 2026, signaling one of the most intense upcycles the memory industry has seen in years. Driven by stronger-than-expected demand from PCs, servers, smartphones, and AI infrastructure, coupled with severe supply constraints, memory contract prices are now projected to post record-breaking quarter-over-quarter increases.
DRAM market enters extreme seller-driven phase
TrendForce now expects conventional DRAM contract prices to jump by 90 to 95 percent QoQ in 1Q26, a major upward revision from its earlier estimate of 55 to 60 percent. The reassessment reflects a rapidly widening gap between supply and demand across multiple end markets.
PC DRAM is at the center of the surge. PC shipments in the fourth quarter of 2025 exceeded expectations, leading to a widespread shortage of PC DRAM. Even tier-one PC OEMs with long-term supply allocations are seeing inventories fall faster than anticipated. With suppliers firmly in control of the market, PC DRAM prices in 1Q26 are projected to rise by more than 100 percent QoQ, setting a new historical record for a single quarter.
Server DRAM prices hit record highs amid CSP competition
Server DRAM is also entering an unprecedented pricing phase. Major cloud service providers and server OEMs in North America and China have continued negotiating annual long-term agreements with memory suppliers into January. Intense competition among buyers for limited available capacity is expected to push server DRAM contract prices up by around 90 percent QoQ in 1Q26, marking the largest quarterly increase ever recorded for this segment.
Suppliers are under pressure to allocate capacity carefully, balancing actual demand signals while maintaining strategic relationships with key accounts. The constrained environment leaves little flexibility, reinforcing strong pricing power for memory manufacturers.
Mobile DRAM faces steepest increase on record
The supply-demand imbalance in DRAM is also spilling into mobile memory. End-device segments are now competing more aggressively for allocations, driving sharp price hikes across LPDDR products. Contract prices for both LPDDR4X and LPDDR5X are expected to surge by around 90 percent QoQ in 1Q26, representing the steepest increases in their respective histories.
Most contracts with U.S.-based smartphone brands were finalized toward the end of 2025, locking in higher pricing. Negotiations with Chinese smartphone vendors are expected to make significant progress toward the end of February, following the completion of fourth-quarter contracts and the Lunar New Year holiday. These talks are likely to reflect the same tight supply conditions and elevated price levels.
NAND Flash supply tightens as focus shifts to DRAM
On the NAND Flash side, TrendForce has raised its 1Q26 contract price forecast to a 55 to 60 percent QoQ increase, up from an earlier estimate of 33 to 38 percent. Although order volumes for NAND Flash in 1Q26 far exceed suppliers’ production capacity, memory manufacturers remain more optimistic about DRAM profitability.
As a result, suppliers are proactively reallocating portions of their production lines from NAND Flash to DRAM. This strategic shift further limits NAND capacity expansion. Any gains in NAND output are expected to come only from incremental process improvements, making short-term capacity tightness difficult to resolve.
AI-driven demand fuels enterprise SSD price spike
The strongest upside pressure within the NAND ecosystem is coming from enterprise storage. Demand for high-performance storage has far surpassed earlier expectations as AI workloads, particularly inference applications, continue to scale rapidly. Since late 2025, leading North American cloud service providers have sharply increased procurement, triggering a surge in enterprise SSD orders.
With the supply gap widening and buyers actively stockpiling inventory, enterprise SSD prices are forecast to rise by 53 to 58 percent QoQ in 1Q26. This would mark a new record for quarterly price increases in the enterprise SSD segment.
Outlook: volatility likely to persist
TrendForce notes that further upward price adjustments remain possible if demand continues to outpace supply. With capacity expansion constrained and AI-driven consumption accelerating across PCs, servers, and storage, the memory market is entering a phase of exceptional volatility. For OEMs and cloud providers alike, securing supply rather than minimizing cost is becoming the primary challenge heading into 2026.
RAJANI BABURAJAN
