In the ever-evolving landscape of memory technology, a recent report from TrendForce sheds light on an anticipated universal price increase for both DRAM and NAND Flash set to commence in the fourth quarter. The projections showcase a quarterly surge ranging from 3-8 percent, revealing the evolving dynamics influencing the pricing trends.
PC DRAM: The report emphasizes the continued upward trajectory of DDR5 prices, driven by the stocking of new CPU models and surging demand. Major player Samsung’s production reductions are noted, but manufacturers resist further price reductions due to negative gross margins, setting the stage for an estimated 0-5 percent increase in DDR4 prices and a 3-8 percent rise in DDR5 prices.
Server DRAM: The market is witnessing a slower-than-expected uptake of DDR5 in servers despite a rise in inventory levels. Samsung’s production cutbacks and a supply crunch in server DDR4 stocks contribute to a stable pricing outlook for server DDR4, while server DDR5 prices maintain a declining trajectory. The blended ASP for server DRAM is expected to rise by approximately 3-8 percent in Q4.
Mobile DRAM: Mobile DRAM demand remains steady, supported by an increase in per-device capacity and a seasonal rise in smartphone production. Manufacturers, aiming to enhance profits, are pushing prices upward for both LPDDR4X and LPDDR5(X), with estimated contract price increases ranging from 3-10 percent based on supply conditions.
Graphics DRAM: The graphics DRAM market is buoyed by sustained procurement of GDDR6 16Gb chips, anticipating price increases in 2024. Strong sales of gaming notebooks contribute to a less stressed inventory situation for graphics DRAM, setting the stage for an estimated 3-8 percent hike in graphics DRAM contract prices in Q4.
Consumer DRAM: Samsung’s production reductions and inventory adjustments indicate a potential 30 percent cut by Q4. Manufacturers are eyeing more than 10 percent price hikes for consumer DRAM to balance the market and prevent losses. However, demand remains lackluster, leading to a projected 3-8 percent increase in consumer DRAM contract prices for the quarter.
These projections showcase the intricate interplay of supply, demand, technological advancements, and market dynamics in shaping the pricing trends for crucial memory components, highlighting the challenges and opportunities ahead for industry stakeholders.