Windows XP will not help, PC shipments to dip 6% in 2014: IDC

Worldwide PC shipments will decrease 6 percent in 2014, said IDC. Windows XP replacement activity will not help device vendors.

Earlier, IDC predicted 6.1 percent decline in PC shipments.

Emerging PC markets see weak demand and difficult conditions, though the economic environment in Latin America had the largest impact.

IDC also lowered longer-term growth in PC shipments to less than a percent for 2015-2017. In 2015, PC shipments will dip at 1.6 percent and later the growth will be between 0 and -1 percent.

Positive factors for the PC market include slowing tablet demand and steadying economic indicators that are contributing to more stable PC shipments in mature markets.

The Windows XP replacement activity is expected to remain a positive factor. Thanks to Windows XP replacement, the United States will continue to lead the PC market over China through 2017.

PC shipment statistics

Consumer interest in PCs remains constrained and price-sensitive, even as Chromebook vendors and channels expand and boost volume in this low-end segment, said IDC.

IDC expects further market restructuring and consolidation going forward as vendors review limited PC growth and look at broader mobility and computing trends. Sale of Sony’s PC division and Samsung refocusing its PC operations are some of the examples of the gloomy PC market.

Jay Chou, senior research analyst, Worldwide PC Trackers, said: “Shipments in emerging IT markets are expected to contract in double digits (nearly 20 million units fewer) compared to 2013. Political and economic instability in many of these markets are key factors affecting short-term intake, but a fundamental shift toward computing across the device spectrum represents a broader transition.”

IDC in its research note said that refresh projects and continued growth in underserved areas will bring modest growth in emerging IT markets by 2016, but the overall volume has been further curtailed to less than 165 million units per year through the forecast horizon.

Canalys on PC shipments

Canalys earlier said worldwide client PC shipments increased 5 percent to 123.7 million units in Q1 2014.

Growth in tablet shipments slowed to 21 percent, yet at 50.8 million units they continue to out-ship notebooks. Tablets accounted for 41 percent of the market, notebooks 38 percent. The worldwide decline in notebooks slowed to 7 percent as Western Europe continued to grow and North America remained flat, partly due to commercial sales improving in both regions.

Commercial shipments have been lifted by the end of life of Windows XP, a trend that also influenced desktops, helping shipments to remain flat year on year.

Notebooks and desktops in China, the world’s second largest PC market, declined 13 percent and 6 percent respectively compared with the previous year, said Canalys.

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