The U.S. PC market experienced a notable rebound in Q1-2025, with desktop and notebook shipments growing 15 percent to reach 16.9 million units, according to Canalys, now part of Omdia.
This upswing was primarily driven by a vendor-led surge in sell-in activity ahead of anticipated tariff hikes, resulting in significant inventory accumulation. However, this front-loaded demand, combined with weakening consumer sentiment, is expected to dampen market momentum through the rest of the year.
PC Spending Trends
In 2024, the total PC shipments in the U.S. stood at 69.2 million units. The commercial segment led with 29.5 million units, accounting for 42.6 percent of the market. The consumer segment followed with 26.3 million units (38.0 percent), education with 9.6 million units (13.9 percent), and government with 3.8 million units (5.5 percent).
PC Forecasts
In 2025, shipments are projected to rise to 70.4 million units. Commercial remains dominant at 31.8 million units (45.1 percent), while consumer shipments drop to 25.2 million units (35.8 percent). Education contributes 9.4 million units (13.3 percent) and government 4.1 million units (5.8 percent).
By 2026, total shipments are forecasted at 73.0 million units. The commercial sector is expected to reach 33.0 million units (45.2 percent), consumer 26.8 million units (36.8 percent), education 9.2 million units (12.6 percent), and government 4.0 million units (5.4 percent).
While 2025 is expected to close with a modest 2 percent growth in total PC shipments, the market remains bifurcated. Commercial PC spending is on a strong trajectory, with shipments projected to grow 8 percent as enterprises, particularly small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs), gear up for Windows 11 migrations. Conversely, the consumer segment is forecast to shrink by 4 percent amid spending fatigue, inflationary pressures, and uncertainty around broader economic conditions.
Crucially, a more substantial wave of upgrade activity is anticipated in 2026. With Microsoft’s Windows 10 end-of-support deadline looming in October 2025, a large portion of refresh activity — especially among lagging SMBs and consumers — is expected to shift into the following year. This delayed cycle is forecast to lift PC shipment growth to 4 percent in 2026.
Strategies and Market Dynamics
Businesses have been more responsive to Microsoft’s push for timely Windows 11 upgrades. Canalys’ Ishan Dutt notes that commercial demand is strengthening as awareness grows, and this will be a vital counterweight to declining consumer appetite. The emphasis is now on ensuring that SMBs take advantage of refreshed infrastructure before support lapses, and vendors are aligning their channel strategies accordingly.
On the consumer front, the Windows 10 end-of-support has yet to trigger significant urgency. Research Manager Kieren Jessop highlights that many users remain indifferent until hardware issues or performance degradation necessitate replacement. Complexity in specifications, unclear value propositions, and pricing concerns continue to delay purchases. As a result, vendors are being urged to refine their messaging and simplify product portfolios — offering clearer, needs-based guidance to streamline the buying journey.
Main PC vendors
In Q1 2025, HP led the PC market with shipments of 4.12 million units and a 24.3 percent market share. Dell followed with 3.90 million units shipped, securing a 23.0 percent share.
Lenovo shipped 3.11 million units, capturing 18.4 percent of the market.
Apple recorded 2.71 million units in shipments, representing 16.0 percent share.
Acer shipped 942,000 units with a 5.6 percent market share.
Other PC vendors collectively shipped 2.17 million units, accounting for 12.8 percent of the total market.
Looking Ahead
Retailers and PC brands face a balancing act in H2-2025. With inventories already high and the Fed halting interest rate cuts in response to inflation concerns, sell-in is expected to slow. To maintain momentum, market players will need to double down on commercial sales and prepare for a delayed but more robust consumer refresh wave post-Windows 10 EoS.
Rajani Baburajan
