TrendForce has revised its global notebook shipment outlook for 2026, warning of a sharper downturn as rising component costs and supply constraints weigh heavily on the market. The research firm now expects notebook shipments to decline 9.4 percent year-on-year in 2026, down from its earlier forecast of a 5.4 percent drop, reflecting growing short-term uncertainty across the supply chain.
According to TrendForce, elevated memory prices and an unstable CPU supply environment are the primary near-term risks. Looking ahead, the trajectory of the notebook market in the second half of 2026 will depend on several factors, including changes in key component supply, brands’ cost adjustment strategies, inventory positions, product roadmaps, and consumers’ willingness to accept higher device prices.
Despite these headwinds, notebook brands remain relatively optimistic about shipments in the first quarter of 2026. However, TrendForce believes this optimism may prove difficult to sustain. Ongoing supply-side disruptions could prevent brands from securing all required components on time, resulting in a projected 14.8 percent quarter-on-quarter decline in notebook shipments in 1Q26. A modest recovery is expected in 2Q26 as Intel’s CPU supply situation gradually improves.
TrendForce’s latest industry survey shows that global notebook brands have been dealing with steep memory price increases since the second half of 2025. As 2026 begins, these challenges are compounded by a temporary shortage of CPUs and further price hikes. Rising costs for printed circuit boards, batteries, and power management ICs are adding to the pressure, collectively pushing expected global notebook shipments down 14.8 percent quarter-on-quarter in 1Q26, well below brands’ original expectations.
CPUs remain a major cost driver in notebook systems, accounting for roughly 15 percent to 30 percent of the total bill of materials, depending on configuration. Entry-level and mainstream notebooks continue to rely heavily on Intel processors. However, recent price increases on lower-end Intel CPUs, combined with supply shortages expected to last beyond March, are complicating product planning and shipment schedules for notebook makers.
Memory is emerging as the most significant cost shock. Contract prices for notebook DRAM and SSDs in 1Q26 are now expected to rise by more than 80 percent and 70 percent quarter-on-quarter, respectively, far exceeding earlier projections. Aggressive shipment activity since 4Q25 has rapidly depleted memory inventories, and as fulfillment rates from memory suppliers decline in 1Q26, notebook brands face tighter sourcing constraints. This imbalance is disrupting production plans and delaying shipments.
At the same time, PCB costs are climbing due to greater design complexity and higher copper prices. TrendForce notes that structurally higher PCB costs are likely to persist as motherboard layer counts increase in response to mid-range and high-end notebook specification upgrades.
Other components are also becoming more expensive. Specification upgrades are pushing up battery costs, while higher lithium material prices are driving battery quotes even higher. Increased CPU and NPU power consumption is boosting demand for PMICs, and the adoption of new standards such as Wi-Fi 7 and USB4 is raising the cost of related chips and connectors. Although these individual increases are smaller than those seen in memory or CPUs, their combined impact represents a substantial financial burden for notebook brands, which typically operate on thin margins.
RAJANI BABURAJAN
