PC Shipments to Rebound, Fueled by AI and Commercial Sector Recovery: Canalys

Canalys, a market research firm, has unveiled promising projections indicating a forthcoming turnaround in the global PC market.
Canalys forecast report on PC shipment in 2024After enduring seven consecutive quarters of decline, the sector is set to witness a resurgence with an anticipated 5 percent growth in the fourth quarter of 2023. This optimistic trajectory is attributed to a robust holiday season and improving macroeconomic conditions.

Forecasts for the full year of 2024 are more encouraging, with an estimated 267 million units expected to be shipped worldwide, marking an 8 percent increase over 2023. This resurgence in the PC market is expected to be propelled by various factors, including the impending Windows refresh cycle and the emergence of AI-capable and Arm-based devices.

In Asia Pacific, PC shipment will reach 53.8 million in 2024 from 49.7 million in 2023 and 55.1 million in 2022.

In Europe, PC shipment will reach 56.7 million in 2024 from 52.8 million in 2023 and 62.3 million in 2022.

In Greater China, PC shipment will reach 45.5 million in 2024 from 43.6 million in 2023 and 53.2 million in 2022.

In Middle East and Africa, PC shipment will reach 14.4 million in 2024 from 12.9 million in 2023 and 13 million in 2022.

In Latin America, PC shipment will reach 19.2 million in 2024 from 17.1 million in 2023 and 20.1 million in 2022.

In North America, PC shipment will reach 77.6 million in 2024 from 72.3 million in 2023 and 80.2 million in 2022.

Canalys Analyst Ben Yeh emphasized the pivotal role of AI in the PC industry’s resurgence, anticipating profound impacts across OEMs, processor manufacturers, and operating system providers.

“The global PC market is on a recovery path and set to return to 2019 shipment levels by next year. The impact of AI on the PC industry will be profound, with leading players across OEMs, processor manufacturers, and operating system providers focused on delivering new AI-capable models in 2024,” Ben Yeh said.

AI-capable PCs shipment share is expected to reach approximately 19 percent in 2024. This includes a spectrum of AI-capable products across both Mac and Windows ecosystems. Anticipating a swift escalation in development and adoption, Canalys expects the emergence of more compelling use cases, driving the uptake of AI-capable PCs.

Canalys Principal Analyst Ishan Dutt shed light on the commercial segment’s resurgence, signaling an impending surge in demand in 2024.

“Following a prolonged period of delayed purchasing, the commercial segment is poised for a demand bump in 2024,” Ishan Dutt said. He noted positive channel sentiment, with nearly half of the partners surveyed anticipating a significant uptick of 10 percent or more in their Windows PC shipments for the coming year.

Macroeconomic difficulties in recent quarters had significantly impacted SMBs’ ability to budget for PC procurement. With the anticipated proliferation of Arm-based PCs, particularly driven by Qualcomm’s X Elite chip, partners are expected to offer improved power efficiency and battery life to cater to customer demands.

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