Notebook shipment is forecast to grow 8.6 percent to 217 million units in 2021 from 200 million in 2020, TrendForce said.
Yearly notebook computer shipment grew 22.5 percent in 2020 to surpass 200 million units for the first time ever.
The increasing popularity of distance education has galvanized a rising demand for Chromebooks, which have contributed substantially to the growth of the overall market.
Chromebook shipment reached 29.6 million units in 2020, registering 74 percent growth for the year.
Chromebooks accounted for 14.8 percent of the global notebook shipment in 2020, while this rate is expected to rise to 18.5 percent in 2021.
Notebook brands are making improvements to their business notebooks’ functionalities, including AI, camera modules, sound quality, background noise removal, and image qualities to meet the audiovisual demands of online meetings, as well as the personal and entertainment needs of end users.
HP, Dell and Lenovo are releasing new mid-range and high-end mixed-use business notebooks in response to the commercial opportunities. Demand for this product category is expected to peak in 1H21 and in turn massively raise overall notebook shipment for the period as well.
TrendForce projects yearly Chromebook shipment to exceed 40 million units in 2021, a 37 percent YoY growth. Moreover, given Google’s aggressive product strategies, this projection may have even further room for growth.
Windows remains the dominant choice in the notebook market. However, due to the rapid growth of Chromebooks in 2020, Windows’ market share dropped below 80 percent for the first time ever. Windows is unlikely to recover its lost market shares in the short run, since its decline is expected to persist going forward.
TrendForce expects the market shares of Windows, Chrome OS, and MacOS to each stabilize at about 70-75 percent, 15-20 percent, and below 10 percent, respectively.
With regards to notebook CPUs, AMD’s Zen+ microarchitecture-based CPUs saw a uptick in notebook adoption in 2019, with about an 11.4 percent market share. This figure rose to 20.1 percent in 2020 after a period of product ramp-up.
Ryzen 3000 series CPUs have been receiving excellent market feedback in the entry-level and mid-range notebook segments, thereby convincing notebook brands to start equipping their Chromebooks with AMD CPUs, bringing about a further and considerable growth in AMD’s market share.
Apple Silicon M1 processors, based on the ARM architecture and released in November 2020, reached 0.8 percent market share for the year. Apple adopted the ARM architecture primarily to optimize MacBook performances.
Apple is expected to release 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pros, both of which will be equipped with Apple’s in-house CPUs, after 2Q21, raising Apple’s notebook market share to about 7 percent.
The 7 percent and 20 percent market shares from Apple and AMD, respectively, mean that Intel will be faced with increasing competitive pressure in the market and need to deliver an appropriate product strategy in response.