The global notebook market may face a sharp rise in retail prices in 2026 as manufacturers grapple with increasing component costs and weak consumer demand. According to research from TrendForce, the price of a mainstream notebook originally priced at about $900 could increase by nearly 40 percent if brands attempt to maintain their current profit margins.
The above chart prepared by TrendForce indicated the size of the notebook market for 2025.
Rising Memory Costs Driving Notebook Price Increases
TrendForce notes that supply constraints for notebook DRAM and NAND Flash have intensified since the start of 2026. Tight supply conditions have pushed up prices significantly, increasing procurement costs for notebook manufacturers.
Under normal market conditions, memory components such as DRAM and SSDs account for around 15 percent of a notebook’s bill of materials (BOM). However, after several quarters of rising prices, memory components could represent more than 30 percent of the BOM by the first quarter of 2026.
This shift alone could force manufacturers to increase retail prices of a $900 notebook by more than 30 percent just to preserve existing margins across the supply chain.
CPU Price Hikes Add to Cost Pressures
In addition to rising memory prices, CPU costs are also increasing. Supply chain observations from TrendForce indicate that Intel has already raised prices on certain entry-level and older-generation notebook processors by more than 15 percent.
Further price increases for mainstream and mid-to-high-end platforms are expected in the second quarter of 2026. Since CPUs represent one of the largest cost components in a notebook, these increases are likely to further inflate overall system costs.
If both memory and CPU prices continue to rise, their combined share of a notebook’s BOM could increase from about 45 percent to nearly 58 percent. In such a scenario, retail prices for a $900 notebook could climb close to 40 percent higher.
AI Demand Affecting CPU Supply
The notebook supply chain is also experiencing shifts in CPU availability. Growing demand for AI-related computing workloads is prompting chip manufacturers to prioritize advanced semiconductor process capacity for high-performance computing products.
As a result, supply for entry-level notebook CPUs has become tighter. This trend has begun to affect the availability of some entry-level notebook platforms powered by Intel processors.
Larger Notebook Brands Better Positioned
The impact of rising CPU prices and tighter supply is expected to vary across manufacturers. Large notebook brands with long-term partnerships and higher purchasing volumes are more likely to secure stable component supply and favorable pricing.
Smaller notebook brands, however, may face greater pressure due to limited procurement scale and weaker negotiating power.
AMD Gaining Momentum but Supply Tightness Emerging
Amid the changing market dynamics, processors from AMD have become increasingly competitive as notebook brands adopt multi-platform strategies to diversify their supply chains.
This trend has helped AMD gain market share in the notebook processor segment. However, industry reports suggest that shortages may also be emerging for some entry-level AMD platforms, indicating that supply constraints could affect a broader portion of the market.
Outlook for the Notebook Market
TrendForce concludes that the trajectory of memory supply and CPU pricing in the coming quarters will play a decisive role in shaping global notebook shipment trends and competitive dynamics among notebook brands.
RAJANI BABURAJAN
