Analyst firm TrendForce has scaled back its full-year shipment growth forecast for the global notebook industry from 3.6 percent to 1.4 percent for 2025, reflecting concerns around global trade policy and consumer demand.
The revised growth outlook for the notebook industry in 2025 paints a cautious picture shaped by geopolitical tensions and economic fragility. Despite an initial surge in shipments during late 2024 — spurred by frontloading efforts ahead of potential tariff changes — and a 7.2 percent year-over-year rise in the first quarter of 2025, the industry’s optimism has waned.
At the center of this downturn is the evolving tariff issue. The U.S. has introduced a 90-day grace period before reciprocal tariffs take effect, temporarily softening the blow for notebook brands. However, this reprieve does little to ease the overarching uncertainty.
The disparity in tariffs — 0 percent on imports from Southeast Asia versus 20 percent on those from China — has already triggered a reorientation of supply chains. Notebook brands are rapidly shifting production to countries like Vietnam and Thailand, with U.S.-based companies reaping the benefits of earlier investments in these regions. Meanwhile, non-U.S. brands, still in the midst of relocating supply chains, are struggling with limited flexibility.
As the U.S. continues to account for about 30 percent of global notebook demand, its policies have a disproportionate influence on worldwide shipment trends. The temporary relief provided by the tariff delay is unlikely to offset the long-term consequences if negotiations falter.
In a December 2024 report, Canalys said PC shipments (excluding tablets) to the United States grew 7 percent to 17.9 million units in Q3 2024. Notebooks drove this growth, with shipments up 9 percent annually. Total PC shipments to the US are expected to rise 6 percent to just under 70 million units in 2024 followed by modest 2 percent growth in both 2025 and 2026.
Analyst firm Gartner earlier said worldwide PC shipments rose 4.8 percent to 59 million units in the first quarter of 2025. U.S. PC shipments increased 12.6 percent to 16 million units in the first quarter of 2025.
TrendForce today said potential Chinese retaliation through tariffs on key U.S. components could elevate production costs and stifle both consumer and enterprise upgrade cycles. Retail prices are expected to climb, weakening demand and pushing brands to adopt a more conservative approach to production and procurement, TrendForce said.
The eventual outcome of ongoing trade negotiations will be pivotal. A cap on Southeast Asian import tariffs at 10–20 percent could stabilize costs and mitigate some of the market turbulence. But the risk of escalation remains, and if talks fail, the industry could see demand soften in the latter half of the year.
In such a scenario, the revised growth projection of 1.4 percent could flip into contraction, with TrendForce warning of a potential 2.1 percent decline in annual notebook brand shipments. The industry now faces a delicate balancing act, caught between reshaping global supply chains and navigating the unpredictable currents of international trade policy, TrendForce said.
Baburajan Kizhakedath
