The worldwide PC device market is facing a period of moderate growth in the near term, with long-term expansion expected to be sluggish, IDC report said.
In 2025, total PC shipments are forecasted to reach 416.3 million units, reflecting a 2.1 percent increase from the previous year.
However, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) between 2025 and 2029 is expected to be only 0.4 percent, indicating a slow-moving market.
The commercial PC market, excluding education, is projected to see steady but modest growth, with shipments increasing from 138 million in 2025 to 142.6 million in 2029. The commercial segment will experience a 0.8 percent CAGR, showing some resilience amid overall market challenges.
The education PC market, on the other hand, is expected to decline, with shipments dropping from 41.7 million in 2025 to 38.2 million in 2029. The negative CAGR of -2.1 percent signals weakening demand, likely due to market saturation and reduced institutional spending.
The consumer PC segment remains relatively stable, with shipments growing slightly from 236.7 million units in 2025 to 241.8 million in 2029. The consumer PC market is expected to peak in 2025 before experiencing slower growth, with signs of saturation in some segments.
Traditional PC market
The traditional PC market is adjusting to shifting economic conditions, including the impact of tariffs imposed by the USA on China and weaker consumer sentiment.
As a result, IDC has revised its PC shipment forecasts downward for 2025 and beyond. The traditional PC market is now expected to reach 273 million units in 2025, marking a 3.7 percent growth but falling short of previous estimates.
“Price hikes stemming from tariffs in the US combined with subdued demand are leading to a negative impact within the largest market for PCs,” said Jitesh Ubrani, research manager with IDC’s Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers.
Traditional PCs include desktops, notebooks, and workstations and do not include tablets or x86 servers.
Beyond 2025, IDC anticipates growth rates to remain below 1 percent annually through 2029, reflecting market stabilization following the Windows 11 migration cycle.
Tablet market
Tablets are expected to struggle as well, with shipments forecasted to decline by 0.8 percent in 2025 to 143.3 million units, and the market facing a gradual contraction to 141.6 million units by 2029. This decline is largely attributed to consumer saturation, as demand slows following years of sustained tablet adoption.
The PC market, particularly in the USA, is being affected by price increases stemming from tariffs and ongoing economic uncertainty.
Consumer demand remains weak across global markets due to macroeconomic challenges. However, there are some bright spots in the market. Workstation sales are expected to remain strong, and near-term tablet demand in China could receive a boost from government subsidies aimed at encouraging consumer purchases.
While overall market conditions remain challenging, the commercial sector is expected to be the main driver of growth in 2025. Commercial PC volume, including education-focused devices, grew by 2 percent in 2024, driven by large-scale purchases and a modest boost from Windows 11 migration efforts.
Looking ahead, IDC expects commercial renewal projects and school upgrades to be key contributors to market growth in 2025. Businesses are likely to continue investing in Windows 11 devices throughout the year, though budget constraints and other considerations may lead some organizations to opt for in-place upgrades or pay for extended Windows 10 support instead.
AI PCs
The global market for artificial intelligence-enabled PCs, or AI PCs, will strengthen by late 2025. By 2026, a significant portion of new PC shipments is expected to be GenAI-capable, as advancements in AI-driven computing gain traction across both consumer and commercial markets.
Baburajan Kizhakedath
