Research firm IDC has shared insights on the growth of PC market under different categories — Chrome, Windows and Apple Mac PCs — for the coming years.
IDC foresees a potential turnaround in the global PC market in 2024 and beyond, backed by various factors converging within the next two years.
PC Refresh Cycle: A significant number of aging commercial PCs reaching the four-year mark by 2024 are expected to drive a refresh cycle, coinciding with the demand to transition to Windows 11. The total PC market in 2024 is projected to witness a growth of 3.4 percent compared to 2023.
AI Integration: The integration of AI capabilities into PCs, slated for release in 2024 initially targeting certain enterprise segments, may eventually expand across the broader market due to advancements in use cases and cost efficiency.
Consumer Installed Base Evolution: The evolution and recovery of the consumer installed base is anticipated to contribute positively to PC market growth.
The convergence of these factors positions 2024 as a pivotal year for the PC market, offering relief from recent challenges. Beyond 2024, growth is expected to surpass pre-pandemic levels, culminating in 285 million units by 2027.
The worldwide PC market shipment reached 68.5 million units for the third quarter of 2023, clocking a 7.2 percent decrease compared to the same period in 2022.
In 2023, the number of PCs being shipped will reach 113.9 million (consumer PCs), 29.6 million (education PCs) and 108.3 million (commercial PCs).
This compares with PC shipment target of 125.5 million (consumer PCs), 35 million (education PCs) and 124.6 million (commercial PCs) for 2027.
Factors contributing to the performance in PC business reveal a blend of driving and inhibiting forces. The upsurge in PC volume is partly accredited to inventory restocking, primarily within the consumer segment.
Additionally, concerns regarding expected escalations in India’s import duties on PCs prompted an accumulation of units within the distribution channel, despite the eventual suspension of these duties. Conversely, stringent IT budgets within the business sector resulted in weaker performance for business PC units, adding to an already conservative commercial forecast.
IDC has revised its forecast for the global PC market, projecting a 13.8 percent decline in shipment volume for 2023 in comparison to the previous year, which itself witnessed a 16.6 percent drop from the year before. This consecutive double-digit decline over two years marks an unprecedented trend in the PC market.