TrendForce has disclosed that the notebook market experienced a challenging year in 2023, grappling with the impact of high inflation.
Annual shipments of notebook have reached 166 million units, reflecting 10.8 percent decrease in 2023. Despite the decline, the notebook industry found solace in the fact that the contraction was less severe compared to the preceding year, 2022.
The first half of 2024 is expected to witness notebook manufacturers diligently addressing existing inventory backlogs while benefiting from the anticipated alleviation of inflationary pressures. A glimmer of hope for the US market lies in the potential for interest rate cuts, with financial adjustments poised to significantly lower corporate borrowing costs and enhance liquidity.
Further optimism stems from the impending upgrades in Microsoft’s operating systems, likely to drive enterprise users towards system enhancements for improved security, consequently stimulating demand for new notebooks.
TrendForce forecasts a gradual quarterly upturn in the notebook market throughout 2024, with an approximate modest annual growth rate of 3.6 percent. The projection estimates notebook shipments reaching 172 million units, indicating a positive trajectory for the industry.
One of the highlights at CES 2024 was the spotlight on AI-powered PCs, drawing significant attention from industry enthusiasts. Major chip manufacturers, Intel and AMD, seized the initiative by collaborating with laptop brands to introduce a new line of products featuring AI acceleration engines.
This signifies a paradigm shift in personal computing, transcending the traditional reliance on CPUs and GPUs. The integration of Neural Processing Units (NPUs) is indicative of a future where AI-enabled devices efficiently manage workloads and power consumption. The incorporation of Microsoft Windows 11’s Copilot feature promises a high-performance yet energy-efficient experience for consumers.
TrendForce identifies high-end business users and content creators as the initial target demographic for AI PCs. Despite substantial upgrades in chip performance and related components such as memory, batteries, and cooling systems, a higher price point is deemed inevitable.
While notebook manufacturers focus on hardware advancements and consumers express a willingness to experiment with AI PCs, the growth in market penetration for these devices in 2024 may remain limited without compelling AI applications.
TrendForce underscores that the future growth of global notebook shipments, particularly over the next two to three years, hinges on the innovation and development of related software applications. The synergy between hardware and software advancements is expected to drive the notebook industry’s evolution and shape the trajectory of the notebook market in the coming years.