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Commercial demand drives PC growth, but tariff uncertainty clouds channel strategy

Global PC shipments rose 7.4 percent year-on-year to 67.6 million units in Q2 2025, driven largely by a wave of commercial upgrades ahead of Microsoft’s October deadline for Windows 10 end-of-support.

PC market growth in Q2-2025 Canalys report
PC market growth in Q2-2025 Canalys report

Notebooks led the charge with 53.9 million units shipped (up 7 percent), while desktop shipments climbed 9 percent to 13.7 million units.

The commercial segment provided the primary growth momentum, with over half of channel partners expecting further year-on-year growth in H2 2025, according to a Canalys poll.

Meanwhile, consumer demand remained muted amid global economic uncertainty, with many delaying purchases to 2026, when a refresh cycle for COVID-era devices is expected to boost the segment.

Channel strategies are being reshaped by evolving trade policies. The US government’s unpredictable tariff landscape, particularly under the Trump administration, has pushed PC makers to shift production from China to Vietnam to avoid potential duties, Ben Yeh, Principal Analyst at Canalys, now part of Omdia, said.

However, a new US-Vietnam trade deal complicates this strategy by imposing tariffs of 20 percent on Vietnamese goods and 40 percent on transshipped items. With ambiguity around how PCs made in Vietnam using Chinese components will be classified, vendors are navigating a complex regulatory environment. Supply chain diversification, once seen as a solution, now offers limited cost predictability, forcing manufacturers and channel partners to remain agile as policy enforcement details remain unclear.

Top PC vendors

Lenovo maintained its lead with 16.97 million shipments and a 25.1 percent market share, improving from 14.73 million and 23.4 percent share a year earlier.

HP followed with 14.12 million units and a 20.9 percent share, slightly up from 13.68 million units and 21.7 percent.

Dell’s shipments declined to 9.77 million from 10.08 million, causing its market share to drop from 16.0 percent to 14.5 percent.

Apple gained ground, increasing shipments to 6.36 million and capturing 9.4 percent market share, up from 8.3 percent in Q2 2024.

Asus also improved, reaching 5.06 million units and a 7.5 percent share compared to 4.27 million and 6.8 percent last year.

The “Others” category remained relatively flat with 15.29 million units versus 14.91 million previously, but its market share declined slightly from 23.7 percent to 22.6 percent.

Rajani Baburajan

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