TrendForce’s insights have revealed top 10 facts about the global notebook industry in 2025.
# 1 Shipment Growth
Global notebook shipments are projected to grow by 4.9 percent year-over-year, reaching 183 million units in 2025, driven by improved economic conditions and device upgrade cycles.
# 2 Economic and Political Influences
Reduced geopolitical uncertainties and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate cuts in late 2024 are expected to enhance capital flows, stimulating the notebook market.
# 3 Commercial Notebook Recovery
The commercial segment is expected to recover strongly in 2025, with annual shipment growth exceeding 7 percent, as businesses resume upgrades following global layoffs and economic slowdowns in 2024.
# 4 Consumer Market Shift
The consumer segment will focus on high-value, high-margin models in 2025, with shipment growth slowing to 3 percent but accompanied by significant product mix optimization.
# 5 AI Integration
While the adoption of AI-integrated notebooks will increase gradually, their overall market impact in 2025 will remain limited, with penetration rates rising steadily as AI features become standard.
# 6 Chromebook Momentum
Chromebook shipments are expected to grow by 8 percent, driven by educational initiatives such as Japan’s GIGA School 2.0 and increased demand from emerging markets.
# 7 U.S. Trade Policies
The global notebook market remains sensitive to U.S. trade policies, with potential tariff changes under “America First” policies influencing domestic demand.
# 8 Manufacturing Dominance of China
China will maintain its dominance in notebook manufacturing, accounting for approximately 89 percent of global production capacity, despite growing efforts to diversify supply chains to other countries.
# 9 Supply Chain Diversification
Emerging production hubs in Vietnam, Thailand, India, and Mexico are expanding, but creating fully integrated supply chain ecosystems in these regions will take time.
# 10 Upgrade Cycle Drivers
Factors like the end-of-service for Windows 10 and deferred replacement demand will continue to drive notebook sales, particularly in the commercial market.
