The latest wave of U.S. export restrictions on AI chips — specifically targeting high bandwidth memory (HBM)-equipped GPUs — has forced NVIDIA into a precarious position in China, a market that accounted for roughly 13 percent of its global sales.
With its H20 effectively banned and the B30 model delayed or possibly scrapped, NVIDIA is aiming to a scaled-down RTX PRO 6000D (formerly B40) featuring GDDR7 memory instead of HBM, Reuters news report said.
This move allows NVIDIA to comply with U.S. rules capping memory bandwidth to around 1.7–1.8 TB/s, versus the 4 TB/s on the H20. However, this means a significant performance downgrade, limiting the RTX PRO 6000D’s appeal for high-end AI workloads like large model training, TrendForce analysts said today.
NVIDIA’s strategy here is clear: preserve a foothold in China, even if it means selling less powerful, less profitable GPUs. At a price point of $6,500–$8,000, well below the H20’s $10,000–$12,000, the RTX PRO 6000D targets Chinese cloud service providers (CSPs) focused on small-scale AI training and inference. But this reduced performance could open the door for domestic Chinese players like Huawei and Cambricon to capture market share in the high-end AI segment.
Adding to the pressure, NVIDIA’s CUDA platform might not be enough in the long term. As Nori Chiou from White Oak Capital notes, Chinese competitors are expected to catch up within 1-2 years in hardware performance. Unless CUDA remains a strong differentiator, NVIDIA’s hold on the market could weaken further.
Samsung: The Kingmaker of GDDR7
Amid NVIDIA’s China struggle, Samsung emerges as a critical player. As the leading supplier of GDDR7 memory — commanding an estimated 70 percent market share through 2025 — Samsung’s position is pivotal. The U.S. restrictions have inadvertently shifted the demand from HBM to GDDR7, and NVIDIA’s reliance on Samsung for this memory type means the two companies are strategically intertwined.
Samsung’s advantage lies in its production lead: GDDR7’s adoption is still limited beyond NVIDIA’s ecosystem, with gaming consoles and broader consumer electronics yet to embrace it. As a result, Samsung has pricing power in the GDDR7 market, although TrendForce expects pricing to remain stable in the near term.
Samsung benefits from NVIDIA’s shift toward GDDR7 GPUs, but this dependency also gives Samsung leverage over NVIDIA. If Samsung were to face production constraints or strategic shifts, NVIDIA’s ability to deliver on its China-specific GPU roadmap could be further jeopardized.
The Broader AI Chip Race: NVIDIA vs. Huawei
NVIDIA’s market share in China has already fallen from 95 percent pre-2022 to around 50 percent, and the RTX PRO 6000D is a stopgap solution, not a game-changer. Huawei, with its Ascend 910B, and other domestic players are rapidly improving. The loss of access to advanced packaging technologies like TSMC’s CoWoS further hampers NVIDIA’s ability to deliver cutting-edge performance in China.
While NVIDIA’s Blackwell architecture and CUDA ecosystem remain strengths, the loss of the H20 and the downgrade to GDDR7 fundamentally weaken its competitive edge in China’s $50 billion AI data center market.
The Strategic Outlook
| Aspect | NVIDIA | Samsung |
| China AI GPU Strategy | Downgraded RTX PRO 6000D with GDDR7 to comply with U.S. restrictions. Still holds CUDA advantage, but hardware performance lags. | Dominates GDDR7 production. Supports NVIDIA’s China strategy but could shift based on demand/priorities. |
| Market Risks | Loss of high-end AI market in China. Increased competition from Huawei, Cambricon. Dependency on Samsung’s GDDR7. | Limited GDDR7 demand beyond NVIDIA. Pricing power dependent on sustained AI GPU demand. |
| Long-Term Outlook | Maintaining presence in China, but at reduced profitability and competitive edge. CUDA remains a moat but eroding. | Strong in memory supply chain, but risks if broader markets don’t adopt GDDR7 fast enough. May need to pivot if AI demand slows. |
Bottom Line
NVIDIA is playing defense in China, forced to adapt with lower-spec GPUs to comply with U.S. restrictions. While this preserves some revenue, the long-term competitive dynamics favor Huawei and domestic Chinese players, who are catching up in performance and building their own ecosystems.
For Samsung, GDDR7 represents an opportunity, but also a concentration risk: NVIDIA’s needs are a lifeline for GDDR7 in the short term, but Samsung must broaden its customer base or risk being overly reliant on a single market segment.
Baburajan Kizhakedath
